Monday, November 3, 2008


I was going to post these tomorrow but I thought about it and wanted to give you guys more time to chew on them and post your own. I think in rural Iowa Republicans will do well but the urban areas of the state could see huge democrat turnout. Remember this is just my take, I’ve been wrong before…

President of the United States

Iowa Results: Obama 53%, McCain 46%
Electoral College: Obama 286, McCain 252

I know I’m not the only one feeling this way, I went to a local gun shop this weekend and the place was packed. I wonder why?

United States Senate

Harkin 56%, Reed 44%

Now I’ve mentioned this before and many of you have disagreed. I just don’t see Harkin doing much more than he’s ever done in his past elections. The simple fact is that there are a lot of people who really dislike him and are not going to hold their nose because they don’t know his opponent. In their minds anyone is better than Harkin.

United States House of Representatives

1st CD: Braley 56%, Hartsuch 44%

See above. While we all know that David Hartsuch hasn’t run your typical campaign, neither has Braley. Neither has run TV ads and Braley isn’t campaigning. Now Braley is safe but if I were him I would have built my name ID with some ads or something.

2nd CD: Miller-Meeks 49%, Loebsack 48%, Other 3%

I’m going against conventional wisdom here. If you listen to the media they cite the registration numbers and quickly focus on another race. I think that’s lazy journalism and flat out wrong. Miller-Meeks is everywhere, and has somehow found away to match Loebsack on the air. She spanked Professor Pacman at their televised debate, and has clearly claimed the leadership issue as her own.

On the other hand Loebsack has been in hiding and isn’t doing anything to motivate his base. Think about that, the State Dems are running ads against Renee Schulte about her wanting to privatize Social Security, but it’s not an issue in the Congressional race, shocking. In every election there is a race that comes out of nowhere and surprises people. I think the 2nd District race is primed to do just that. Watch this one on election night.

3rd CD: Boswell 59%, Schmett 41%

Now some might think that I’m being nice to Hartsuch and Reed and taking out some anger at Schmett. That’s not the case. The reason for Schmett’s low number is Polk County. It’s going to be bad folks. Obama has visited that county numerous time and Boswell is the guy they all know.

4th CD: Latham 56%, Des Moines Register err.. Greenwald 43%

Part of me wants to give Latham a larger percentage of the vote because he’s earned it, but 56% is what he did against Spencer last cycle and I think Latham stays the course. Latham is Iowa’s future power player in DC. He has positioned himself well for redistricting and his performance this year should fend off serious challengers in the future.

5th CD: King 59%, Hubler 40%

Welcome to King Country. King has also insulated himself from future attacks by raising the most money of any cycle in his years in Congress. Sure the Register hates him, but the people in his district respect him, and like the Western Iowa straight shooter.

Legislative Predictions will be coming later today.


  1. Krusty,

    What's your take on turn out with a June-like forcast tomorrow?

  2. Krusty,

    How about that $20 you owe me? I'll need it before the IRS invades my family budget in January.

    A slacker you are....

    But your predictions are fairly spot on, except I think M cubed wins by 3+....

  3. Why would I send you $20 when I'm going to win the league anyway?

  4. Krusty..

    Rule #8 in Life.

    Do Not PISS off a 900 year old Jedi Master. :)

    Kinda similar to annoying a Wookie.

    Not a good idea :) Let the Jedi win.

  5. WAR Steve King!! I see a guiding light in the West.

  6. Obama 273 McCain 265

    Braley +12
    Boswell +11
    Latham +22
    King +7

    Not a big fan of King, I don't think he will ever lose to a Democrat, but he may be at risk to losing the nomination as many of the younger up and coming Republicans in Iowa do seem to come out of D-5

    Latham is WAY too popular to win by any less than a dozen.

    I wouldn't mind seeing Rants challange him. But thats just me.

    Dems pic up 2 seats in the House
    One in the senate.

    Bailey, Gayman, and Palmer take a hike for thems

    Sullivan, Hoy, Lawyer, Radke, and one other dem pick ups

    And to no ones surprise Dekader wins the lone Dem Senate pick up


  8. If McCain wins VA, HOLD ON TIGHT, it will be an interesting night.
    If he loses VA, grab the Tequila....

    ...& hide your guns.

  9. McCain loses in a landslide and the Republicans are trounced across the board.

    A well deserved thrashing which hopefully leads to a power struggle in the Republican party in which social conservatives and small government Libertarian types attempt to wrest control of the party from neocons and big government republican socialists. Hopefully they are successful and in 4 or 8 years the Republicans can offer a real choice to the American people.


    This is what the republican power elite nominate and then they wonder why
    A. base doesn't turn out

    B. they are out of power, politically irrelevant and will probably remain so for the foreseeable future.

    Here's to the republicans getting the violent electoral ass raping they so richly deserve.

    For that matter here's to the American people getting what they deserve in the next 8 years and getting it good and hard.

  10. Buy more guns. It makes your penis bigger and you wife and kids will love you more.

    Hurry before the democrats come to power! They will eat your babies and take the youngest son to convert to the Red Army.

    When will you Republicans get tired of false attacks and scare tactics. Never? Sounds good, it clearly doesn't work anymore.

  11. The Republican vehicle is broken. It no longer carries the conservative ideals it use to.
    Therefore I dont give a shit

  12. Hey Cummins,

    Fuck You!!!

    Go find your own blog.

  13. Hey Jim, why don't you go ask Bill Ayers or Rev. Wright were Obama's birth certificate is?

  14. Hey anon 8:46,
    Maybe you should worry a little less about Jim and little more about getting out the vote!

    If you are a Republican and you spend any significant amount of time on election day blogging than you will get what you deserve you lazy f@#$#@!!!!

  15. Aww its cute when you get upset at someone telling you the truth about your party's bleak outlook at the moment. What happened to being straight talkers?

  16. Hey Jim,

    I don't know what you just read, but I just read a post that says the GOP is going to have their ass handed to them on a platter. You can't get much more straight talk than that.

    What exactly are you looking for? Someone to tell you to go ahead an gloat? Something tells me you aren't going to wait for permission to do that.

  17. chris t. had King only winning by 7? That is the dumbest thing I've ever seen.

    King wins by 20 pts!

  18. You may be right. Thats still no reason to call me a jackass.
    I think he wins by 7. He's not a good candidate. He is a polarizing figure.
    I just think Latham is head over heals above him.

  19. Oh my gawd, the 3M is toast!


    I was right November 3, 2008 10:43 PM wasn't I?

    It's gonna be an interesting 8 years or more. A cross between Detroit and "The Last King Of Scotland".

    I can't freakin' wait. Whitey is in for one helluva shock.

  21. Step back from the Koolaid now, boys and girls. Any of you that thought Miller-Meeks had a chance in hell were high. I've been laughing the whole time you've been writing that garbage and now the true poll tells the story. She worked her butt off, no doubt about it, but she didn't do much better than Hartsuch did in the 1st, without Braley running any ads!