Predictions

I was going to post these tomorrow but I thought about it and wanted to give you guys more time to chew on them and post your own. I think in rural Iowa Republicans will do well but the urban areas of the state could see huge democrat turnout. Remember this is just my take, I’ve been wrong before…

President of the United States

Iowa Results: Obama 53%, McCain 46%
Electoral College: Obama 286, McCain 252

I know I’m not the only one feeling this way, I went to a local gun shop this weekend and the place was packed. I wonder why?

United States Senate

Harkin 56%, Reed 44%

Now I’ve mentioned this before and many of you have disagreed. I just don’t see Harkin doing much more than he’s ever done in his past elections. The simple fact is that there are a lot of people who really dislike him and are not going to hold their nose because they don’t know his opponent. In their minds anyone is better than Harkin.

United States House of Representatives

1st CD: Braley 56%, Hartsuch 44%

See above. While we all know that David Hartsuch hasn’t run your typical campaign, neither has Braley. Neither has run TV ads and Braley isn’t campaigning. Now Braley is safe but if I were him I would have built my name ID with some ads or something.

2nd CD: Miller-Meeks 49%, Loebsack 48%, Other 3%

I’m going against conventional wisdom here. If you listen to the media they cite the registration numbers and quickly focus on another race. I think that’s lazy journalism and flat out wrong. Miller-Meeks is everywhere, and has somehow found away to match Loebsack on the air. She spanked Professor Pacman at their televised debate, and has clearly claimed the leadership issue as her own.

On the other hand Loebsack has been in hiding and isn’t doing anything to motivate his base. Think about that, the State Dems are running ads against Renee Schulte about her wanting to privatize Social Security, but it’s not an issue in the Congressional race, shocking. In every election there is a race that comes out of nowhere and surprises people. I think the 2nd District race is primed to do just that. Watch this one on election night.

3rd CD: Boswell 59%, Schmett 41%

Now some might think that I’m being nice to Hartsuch and Reed and taking out some anger at Schmett. That’s not the case. The reason for Schmett’s low number is Polk County. It’s going to be bad folks. Obama has visited that county numerous time and Boswell is the guy they all know.

4th CD: Latham 56%, Des Moines Register err.. Greenwald 43%

Part of me wants to give Latham a larger percentage of the vote because he’s earned it, but 56% is what he did against Spencer last cycle and I think Latham stays the course. Latham is Iowa’s future power player in DC. He has positioned himself well for redistricting and his performance this year should fend off serious challengers in the future.

5th CD: King 59%, Hubler 40%

Welcome to King Country. King has also insulated himself from future attacks by raising the most money of any cycle in his years in Congress. Sure the Register hates him, but the people in his district respect him, and like the Western Iowa straight shooter.

Legislative Predictions will be coming later today.