Thursday, November 20, 2008

I thought every Republican was a conservative?

We all know Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Fred Thompson, and Tom Tancredo are conservatives. Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain also called themselves conservatives. Sometime in this past year I wrote about how the word conservative doesn’t mean anything anymore. I was frustrated then, and remain so still today.

I get a little peeved when I read articles like Mike Glover’s AP piece that wonders if Iowa’s social conservatives err evangelicals have rendered the Republican Caucuses in Iowa obsolete. Equally frustrating is the Fly Over Boyz recent post on the same topic. The Mike Glover’s and Fly Over Boyz of the world still have a hard time comprehending how someone like Huckabee won last January, and instead of learning from that election, they instead seek to discredit it.

I think this is an interesting subject that ties in well with the conversation we have been having over the past few weeks. While I respect people like Doug Gross, Dave Roderer, and by other friends in the blogosphere, they are simply wrong when they accuse the social conservatives of ruining the caucuses. The truth is that the moderates who came to Iowa ran bad campaigns, including Mitt Romney.

First let’s set a few things straight.

First, John McCain did staff up early here in Iowa, his collection of talent was very impressive. What drove McCain out of the state was his lack of money, and Mitt Romney’s perceived strength, not social conservatives.

We all know McCain ran 100 million dollar primary campaign; the only problem was he couldn’t raise that 100 mil. The result was a huge June reorganization where he cut his staff drastically, and cut back his activities in multiple states. His rough going in Iowa had much more to do with the fact that he blew us off in 2000 than the social conservatives being against him early on. Let’s not forget Marlys Popma and Maxine Sieleman were on staff, and people like Norm Pawlewski (ICA), Barb Taylor (IFPC and ICA), and Stacey Cargill (anti-gambling activist) were all on board the Straight talk Express early.

Additionally, people thought that Romney was going to turn out 10,000 or so supporters to the Straw Poll, far less than the 4516 votes he actually received. There were a number of former McCain staffers who said that if they would have known the winner needed to be around 5000 votes that probably would have participated. Simply put, McCain’s treatment of the Iowa Caucuses in 2000, his poor fundraising in 2007, and Mitt Romney’s chest pounding all had a part in driving McCain out of Iowa. Not Iowa’s social conservatives.

Secondly, Mitt Romney came into to Iowa and tried to be something he’s not, a social conservative. I have a lot of problems with candidates who try to paint themselves in a different light when it comes time to run for President. Now what I find frustrating is that Mitt Romney didn’t need to change who he was to win in Iowa, his campaign made a strategic decision to go after the social conservatives rather than go after those fiscal conservatives who should have been his bread and butter. Seriously, where was the Mitt Romney who wrote this yesterday about the Auto industry Bailout? A candidate like that can find traction anywhere.

The problem the Romney campaign ran into was their unwillingness to look outside of your typical Republican caucus goer. I remember in the days and weeks leading up to the caucuses, the Romney campaign, particularly Doug Gross, thought the Republican turnout was going to about 70,000 which would have been an all time low turnout in a contested year. The Romney campaign wasn’t off just a little; they missed the mark by almost 50,000 votes as Iowa Republicans turned out in record numbers on caucus night. How could the brightest minds in Iowa politics be so wrong? Simple, they didn’t any campaign was going to turnout new caucus goers and they got steamrolled.

The amazing thing about Mike Huckabee’s Iowa victory was the fact that he was left for dead time after time. The Republican politicos in Iowa laughed at his staff and they laughed at him. Yet only the Huckabee campaign went outside of the box to build its support system. Huckabee went out and did what every Democrat candidate does when they campaign in Iowa; identify supporters from all walks of life. The only other candidate who was able to draw new people into the Republican caucuses was Ron Paul. So while the Romney campaign worked the State Party’s Caucus Attendees list over and over again, Huckabee who probably couldn’t afford the list ,went ton to town and said if you like me, vote for me.

I believe that a moderate Republican could win the Iowa Caucuses, but to do that they can’t limit their campaigns to only those people who have attended caucuses before, or who vote regularly in primaries. In my opinion this is why Republicans have seen their voter registration numbers fall since 2004. What has happened during that time, two huge Democrat caucus cycles in which every one of their candidates go out and find new people to participate in their process. On the other hand our Republican campaigns only go after the low hanging fruit, those who have gone before.

So it is no surprise that Doug Gross and Dave Roderer blame the social conservatives, because it was them who trounced their candidates last January. But the reason they were able to do so was because only their candidate went outside of the box to build their grassroots organization. Maybe instead of discrediting Huckabee’s accomplishments, they should learn from it. But if you know people like Doug and Dave, they will never admit that they got their asses kicked by some hick named Huckabee.

I believe the Iowa Caucuses are alive and well. I think the next go-around we will see campaigns go out and do more heavy lifting when it comes to getting new people involved in the process. All of which will help our party greatly.

62 comments:

  1. I agree with you on the goings on of this caucus cycle, however, There is a hisorty of Iowa winners not winning it all (that I agree has nothing to do with social conservatives).

    For Example, Only 3 Republican candidates who where not unopposed went on to win the nomination and only one of these three went on to win the election.

    Not suprisingly the stats are little better for the democrats (Who started in 72 as opposed to Republicans' 76) with 5 out of the 10 winning the nomination and only President-Elect Barack Obama winning the general.

    We are a very unique state and while the caucuses are alive and well, there will be candidates who will skip over it again, especially after McCain

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  2. Krusty

    All excellent points.

    I've been reading the blogs over the past few weeks, and one entry popped out in particular. It was from Ed Failor, Jr. He dissected the falacy of the arguments that we lose only because we lose on absentee / early voting. His analysis, couldn't have been more on point: we have to do what we do well mechanically; we have start to do what they do well mechanically, but the overarching point is that we have to have a message. Ed understands this, as his group ITR has consistently held a very clear and distinct message.

    The process our party is going through right now is healthy. It's good. It's painful, but we'll be stronger after we've done a top to bottom review. It's the kind of review GM, Ford and Chrysler should have done before asking for a federal bailout.

    Social conservatives earned their seat at the table. Economic conservatives are a critical part of our party, and they need to re-engage and earn their own power base. This doesn't have to be a zero-sum game.

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  3. Wow Krusty. Its hard to imagine you being more wrong.

    At the time of the Iowa caucus, the two and 1/2 frontrunners nationally were Guiliani, McCain and Fred Thompson. None of which competed in the Straw Poll or the Caucus and their supporters knew that they had to stop Romney so they voted for the Anti-Mormon candidate in Huckabee as he was the least threatening to come out of Iowa. Hence he went nowhere and McCain picked up in NH and took off.

    Mitt Romney was a victim of his own success in Iowa, which is why those likely to get smoked by him in Iowa bailed so not to lose to him. The same sort of thing happened in West Virginia was it? Where McCain instructed his supporters to vote for Hucakabee.

    You are correct that Romeny's op-ed on why we should let the Big 3 go bankrupt is stellar.

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  4. While the media had a love affair with Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and John McCain. Calling them the front runners in late 2007 is way off.

    Fred had all kinds of problems.
    Giuliani kept retreating, first to New Hampshire, then to Florida.

    McCain found is footing in NH, but its because nobody wanted to be the one to finish off the war hero. This was especially noticeable in the debates which fuel the media's comeback story.

    The front runner was Mitt Romney. It wasn't his 2nd place finish in Iowa that put him on the ropes. It was his poor finish in New Hampshire.

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  5. Huckabee organized very well thru the churches too. There was no plan down here by any of the other candidates to vote for Huck to nuke Romney.

    RCP final poll had Huck/Romney at 1-2.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

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  6. You covered a lot of territory Krusty so it's hard to reply as some of your wisdom is right on... and parts of this require you to be called out for your karelessness!

    First, I've yet to hear a single konservative cry out for a reformed move to the middle transformation. It's the MSM and others who wish to further damage our brand by diluting the core "konservative" values we cherish.

    Second, McCain did indeed have a formidible roster here in the early stages and they sought to annoint our good Senator by the prestigue of their kredentials, but THEY DIDN'T WORK! What a bunch of BS - with those staffers and konnections, they had every opportunity to network and build a coalition for the straw poll. The politcal worker bee in Iowa is near extinction!

    You wrote:
    "Huckabee went out and did what every Democrat candidate does when they campaign in Iowa; identify supporters from all walks of life."

    What a krock Krusty! Huck ran a dispicable "whisper" campaign through the churches and with religious bigotry and dirty tricks, perfected a behind the scenes referendum on getting behind your "Kristian" candidiate.

    Who wanted to listen to "professor" Romney lecture on the economy when the Dow hit it's all time high just a few weeks after the straw poll? Our country was still drunk on "excesses" and only now, when we suffer from a national "hangover" do rational folks say, "Hey, that Mitt Romeny knew what he was talking about!"
    (Ron Paul too, for that matter)

    The next caucus will thrive "IF" we have state leadership that leads, and kounties that actually follow our mandate/charter which is to build coalitions of like minded patriots into a large tent knowing that we agree on enough that we can prosper, despite the difference we may have on single issues. There is a lot at stake here Krusty. Be careful next time as this was the sloppiest work I've seen from you in a great while!

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  7. The next caucus will thrive "IF" we have candidates that go out and identify new people who agree with what they are selling regardless if they have attended a caucus before or not. It should be the goal for every Republican campaign, otherwise welcome to 49% of the vote.

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  8. Nobody got new voters to the caucus. The GOP swelled its ranks by approx 8k votes while the Democrats were over 100k. Huckabee tapped into the evangelicals that would have turned out any way. Difference in 2012 is, now he has competition with two folks who are actually competent - Palin and Jindal. Don't know how Huck overcomes this.

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  9. Um, if nobody got new voters to the caucuses, then how did we set a new caucus attendance record?

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  10. Krusty, you're killing me dude! For the guy who I still think is most right in these parts, you're still way off. Your "IF" post suggests that Iowa Republican politics are now personality/kandidate driven?

    So let me paraphrase, let's wait for Sarah or Mike or who knows who, (my $$'s on "who knows") to show up in August of 2011 and create a GOP groundswell based on what "tricks" they have in their bag?

    Back to my original komment about our need for visionary leadership
    with a plan that unites us to work the plan, return to the basics of precinct activity, development and RELATIONSHIPS!! We won't be able to crush the opposition like we did in past cycles so now we're the party of jungle warfare tactics, attack, run, regroup, attack, etc. There's one major problem with the blueprint left by Karl Rove....the new power structure was built on metrics, demographics, mailing lists, and this new "technology" turned us away from the old time fundamentals of "all politics are local" and we have lost our kounty kommittees to the point we can't even field a starting team, much less to have a deep bench to work from. We're in trouble Krusty.
    Let's get back to the basics!

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  11. HJas anyone ever thought about the damage that that Tancredo and Brownback did to Romney left a lasting impact for the caucuses?

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  12. Per Wikipedia:

    "Some 120,000 Iowa Republicans attended the 2008 caucuses, a new record. About 87,000 attended in 2000"

    That's about a 50% increase.

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  13. If Rudy was a favorite of the MSM, they would not have reported a lot of things that floated around his candidacy. He was spared nothing by the MSM in my opinion.

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  14. Huck is signing books here in CR today and wouldn't you know, just when I thought my TV was safe and phone calls were from Mom.....the phone rings and it's a robocall from the Huckster to self promote his book tour today! Don't forget that Huck's supporters were "told" they could ride the Romney bus to Ames and in the privacy of the moment, vote for the real Christian!

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  15. Saying Romney is not a social conservative is the exact type of anti-Mormon bias Huckabee DID use to foster support for his campaign.
    Mormons are just as much social conservatives as christians are.

    Pretending Romney was a pro-abortion candidate even though he had long since made it clear he was against it was one of many lame excuses used to label him as a social liberal.

    Secondly, Romney had a strong showing in NH, finishing a very close second to McCain, who is well supported in that state.

    Romney's campaign in Iowa was well organized, he lost because of the "Christian" campaign run by Huckabee. The proof in the pudding is that it got so bad Romney had to give a national address on his religion. Now why should he have to do that?

    I have no problem with finding candidates who want to include fiscal and social conservatives, and the fact is Romney tried to do that.

    The social conservatives decided to cast him out because of their bias against his religion, using his long past stance for abortion as an excuse.

    This is why they are being blamed for where the party is. This is why fiscal conservatives are upset. There are many who hope that caucus learned their lesson this year. Religion belongs in the home, not our government. We have Freedom of Religion in this land, it is why people originally flocked here. The last thing we need is our own version of Sharia Law. If the far right can't show more respect for diversity in belief, they are going to end up without a party.

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  16. I agree with the whisper campaign comments.

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  17. Agree with you IowaSF

    We are Branding ourselves as the "Evangelical Party" and that is turning off voters.

    how do we re-brand ourselves to regain the majority and while keeping our family value principles?

    Sarah Palin was as socially conservative as is possible (IMO) and if you go through her history while running in Alaska, (before the MSM mania) you would barely know it. She ran on a removing corruption and sound fiscal policies platform.

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  18. Most of us are social conservatives, but we need to be careful not to give the impression that we don't approve of republicans who don't share all of our social values.

    Huckabee and Brownback are the most obvious examples of where this has been a problem.

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  19. Huck is not conservative on anything but guns, babies and marriage. He is too liberal how the hell is he being considered the conservative standard bearer. Has anyone actually looked into his gubernatorial record.

    Thompson and Hunter where the real conservative candidates. This Huckabee is a conservative crap is rediculous. Conservative is all around conservative social, economic and security. Huck has ONE hell Guiliani is a more of a all around conservative than the Huckster.

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  20. You guys have it right. I mean I really couldn't have stated more clearly what really happened and why I became a Huckabee supporter. One Sunday in October after church I was forced into a room and told to vote for Huckabee because that Romney guy was a Mormon. Man I was so scared and so I too became part of the "whisper" campaign. I began telling all my Christian friends to vote for Huckabee even though he was some dumb, Southern, squirrel-eating hick.

    I'm so glad you here all have it figured out. It's been on my conscience as of late and it's good to have it out in the open.

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  21. First of all, the crybaby comments about the anti-Mormon rhetoric has got to stop. All your whining is doing is glossing over the real reason why Romney lost: his flip-flops and failures as a governor. Secondly, your bigotry towards Christians is getting tiresome also. You are no better than the Prop 8 protester who stomped on the old lady's cross and threatened her.

    Sorry, Krusty, got off track. Great post.

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  22. Iowa Rocks:

    Bigotry toward Christians, eh?

    I'm a Knight of Columbus. I'll let you figure out where that puts me in the spectrum of social values.

    The flip-flop excuse is directed at his abortion stance, and there was no flip-flop. He was against abortion well before the campaign ever even began.

    It doesn't surprise me that what is glossed over is the fact Romney had to address his religion in a national address because of the campaign run by Huckabee.

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  23. Yeah, Romney was totatlly pro-life for, like, 6 whole months before he started running for president.

    I know know why anyone would questions that.

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  24. I don't know why anyone would question that.

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  25. And Barack Obama had to do a national address on the subject of race. Cry me another river IowaSF

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  26. Can anyone enlighten me? This is a quote of Romney's from the Michigan primary:

    Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts whose father was president of American Motors in the 1950s and '60s, insisted that the auto industry can be revived and blamed Congress and McCain for ignoring Michigan's problems.

    "The question is, where is Washington?" Romney said, speaking to a gaggle of reporters across from a General Motors transmission plant near Ypsilanti, Michigan, where 200 layoffs were announced last week. "Where does it stop? Is there a point at which someone says 'enough'? Or are we going to allow the entire domestic automotive manufacturing industry to disappear?"

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/13/america/repubs.php

    This appears to be another flip, flop.

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  27. You are exactly what is wrong with the party IR.

    You don't like being called out for intolerance, and you can't debate the facts of the argument.

    So you call people names. Crybaby.

    Well, names aren't quite as effective as facts:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/11/huckabee-dont-mormons-_n_76365.html?page=8


    Running for office on religion is un-American. This country was founded on freedom from persecution.

    You can go ahead and support that brand of Christianity, I prefer mine without the elitism.

    Even Brownback called out Huckabee for Rude's comments basically dismissing Brownback because he was a Catholic. Huckabee let them slide because, well, most of us know why...

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  28. Romney's lack of credibility with social conservatives wasn't because he was mormon. It was because he wasn't a very good mormon.

    If he had actually had a strong pro-life record and hadn't instituted $50 abortions and told stories about how his close relative died of an abortion so he wanted it to be legal, and if he'd actually tried to do something against gay marriage instead of appointing gay activists to the judicial bench, he would have had the support of a lot of social conservatives.

    Even people who weren't social conservatives were turned off by this because of the hypocrisy of it all.

    That's why Fred got third despite being a dismal candidate.

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  29. conservative dad, if you're going to take snippets out of context, let me put them back in context.
    From your own article:

    Romney criticized the energy bill signed into law last month by President George W. Bush that requires cars and trucks sold in the United States to achieve a fleet average of 35 miles per gallon, or 6.7 liters per 100 kilometers, by 2020. Substantial majorities in both parties in both houses of Congress approved the measure. McCain voted for it.

    Romney said he opposed the new mileage standard, describing it as an anvil tossed to Detroit by a government that did not understand the auto industry or care about its workers. "As president, I will not rest as Detroit gets to see layoff after layoff after layoff," he said.

    Romney proposed increased government spending for research on advanced fuels and vehicles, aid to automakers to deal with the costs of health care and pensions for retirees, and tax cuts for most taxpayers to help them buy new cars.


    In other words, invest in changing technology in the auto industry, not give them 25 billion to keep the status quo.

    By allowing the Big 3 to go into a managed bankruptcy, you can change management, renegotiate labor costs to competitive rates and eliminate the burden of debt restricting investment in alternative technology.

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  30. Ummm....I said "crybaby comments" But if the shoe fits........

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  31. In other words, you don't have an argument, and will continue with the name-calling.

    Exactly what we don't need.

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  32. I keep hearing "this is whats wrong with the Republican Party" or whatever else has been said here, but what truly is wrong with our party is that we're actually having this conversation. Why do we have to be fiscally conservative or socially conservative? Cant we just be conservatives? I was a Huckabee supporter but I think the FiCons are right that we arent very inclusive and we need to focus more on getting back to our smaller government principles that made this party great, but the SoCons are also right that their issues should not be overlooked. The fact is, the message that gets traction in America is the FiCon message, but pushing Social issues should not be pushed to the side. I have already made my decision on who i will be caucusing for in 2012...I will be putting my support behind Bobby Jindal because he has shown that he can stand up for the issues important to conservatives, both social and fiscal alike. We need to become the party of Reagan again.

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  33. IowaSF, normally I love to debate on the issues but I don't do it when I know if falls on deaf ears. So sorry. I have bigger fish to fry with other members of the grass roots. Best of luck to you.

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  34. It is time to look beyond both Romney and Huckabee neither could beat Obama in a good year. We need new ideas and better grassroots development. We also need to educate our base as to which issues win state wide and nationally, because what can win here in Iowa kills a candidate in Florida, Ohio or Colorado.

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  35. No GOP candidate right now could beat Obama. I doubt anyone could in 2012.

    Obama is going to have to beat himself, and I honestly don't see that happening.

    But than again, that is 4 years from now. And many things happen in four years.

    Right now we need to focus on bringing America back to the becon of freedom that it once was.
    To restore our economy, the contitution and our international standing that has took a horrible beating the last 8 years, through working across party lines and from individual effort from everyone.

    Dirty partisan politics will no doubt rear it's ugly head soon enough, lets use this time to work for America

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  36. Huckabee said what he needed to win the Iowa Caucuses. Republican voters in primary states got the message. Take that times five for all voters in a general election.

    See Naples and die. Win Iowa and lose.

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  37. Why did Romney support the initial bailout??????? That doesn't seem too fiscally conservative to me.

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  38. Krusty - I believe we need to frame the conservative vrs moderate party leadership debate in a different form. What we have is a situation where people are being conservative and at the exact same time poking thier finger in the eye of everyone else and also we have people being moderates and at the exact same time poking their finger in the eye of everyone else. The problem as I see it is not a conservative vrs moderate issue but that we need to stop poking our fingers in each others eyes. Now I don't mean telling others to stop poking their finger in our eyes . I mean being the example and just stop doing it(honestly stop and encourage your friends to do the same not just changing talking points) and if the other person will not stop just let them look foolish. Now there will be those who will read this and the first thing that comes to mind is someone other than themselves but I would encourage you to look at your self in the mirror and apply this to how you carry yourself. I have some experience at looking myself in the mirror and It is very painful but it has made a world of difference in my life.
    -Mark W. Vonderohe
    Chairman Allamakee County Republicans

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  39. IowaSF is a mindless drone. The whole "bigotry against morons" argument is an argument used by overpaid former Romney staffers to explain why they orchestrated the most expensive electoral fumble in modern history.
    Were there a few people who were attacking Romney in a whisper campaign? Probably, but there were far more Romney people doing the same thing against Huckabee calling him a bigoted "zealot." The difference is that IowaSF and people like him are too stupid to see the clear facts right in front of them.
    Huckabee won because he worked harder. Romney lost because he got lazy and expected to win. Its that simple.
    I could explain how it was done in better detail, but why would I do that. It would seem to me that the Rombots are determined to ignore the lessons they should have learned from the 2008 election and instead choose to blame others for their failure. Such unwillingness to learn lessons from their defeat and instead lash out at the guy who beat them makes them unable to win in the future.

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  40. The statement I made had nothing to do with either Romney or Huckabee. I was referring to the Leadership or those who seek that of our state party. I can see where you got a different impression due to the topic of the thread but I feel strongly that we need to have a honest discussion about the attitudes of our leaders and their ability to be a good communicator. To many times in our party we have people who come across as offensive and they think the correct fix is everyone else needs to be more understanding of them. Or the offended person needs to let it go. Or if you disagree you are not being conservative. Well I say they are being dishonest with them selves and saying that so they don't have to be a man and admit they shouldn't have done that. In my opinion the correct solution is to stop being offensive in the first place and maybe stop being so stubborn and say your sorry once in a while. Yes it's just that simple.

    I would like to share with you an exchange I had on the Phone with Gopaul prior to the state Convention. He called me and wanted to talk with me about my desire to be a national delegate. He said "Now Mark on every team there is a coach and on this team I am the coach and on this team you do what the coach says and you don't ask any questions and you don't ask why" he also went on to say " Now Mark I don't know if you have heard any of the bad rumors going on about me but I don't let them bother me. You see in my country and I'm an immigrant from India the elephants and the dogs walk down the street side by side because the dog knows if he makes the elephant mad the elephant will pick up his foot and step on the dog and the dog will be dead".

    I strongly reject anyone who engages in that behavior being considered for the chair of the party I love. I also think we need to question the judgment of those who support him. I have sat on the side lines and watched this attitude problem and stubbornes go on for to long. NO MORE!!! I love my party and there is a better way.
    We need to place just as much emphasis on being the party of respect as we do the importance of being conservative.

    -Mark W. Vonderohe
    Chairman Allamakee County Republicans

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  41. IowaSF is a mindless drone.

    More name-calling. I'll tell you, you Huckabee supporters sure know how to have an educated, civil debate...

    This stuff really helps solve the problem. Let's just give Obama 8 years now and disperse with the 2012 election.

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