Friday, December 12, 2008

2010: Make or Break for Iowa Republicans

There was a lot of talk after the devastating elections of 2006 that the 2008 contests were of critical importance. While I thought they were important, I have long thought that the 2010 elections will determine if Iowa is a blue, red or purple state.

Even with gains in the State Senate, and House, Iowa Democrats thought they were going to fair much better on November 4th than they did. That’s good news for Republicans, many GOP insiders feel that we have reached bottom and are beginning to rebound. So while that’s good news, I think Iowa Republicans need to be prepared to defend three seats in Iowa they might otherwise overlook.

With King and Latham proving that they are entrenched in their congressional districts Iowa democrats will probably only put up token opposition to them in 2010. It is my belief that they will target our state wide officials in an effort to make Iowa a solid blue state. There is no doubt Iowa Democrats will do whatever it takes to see Chet Culver reelected, but Grassley, Vaudt, and Northey better be prepared for stiff competition.

If you don’t believe me just read this.

While former Governor Tom Vilsack was obviously disappointed that he wasn’t tabbed for a cabinet post in the Obama administration, so was I. Vilsack is an obvious candidate to run against Senator Grassley. DailyKos recently had Research 2000 conduct a poll of a likely Grassley v. Vilsack 2010 matchup.

The results are sobering


Grassley: 48%
Vilsack: 44%


Grassley

Approve 57
Disapprove 36

Vilsack

Approve 55
Disapprove 36

Now I have to remind you that Research 2000 was the same group that had Becky Greenwald within 5 points when Latham’s internals showed him with a 22 point lead.
There is no doubt that a poll like this is done to encourage Vilsack to run, but Iowa Republicans must be prepared. Sure the 2008 elections just ended, but we have a lot of work to do; and a lot on the line in 2010.

47 comments:

  1. Another good post Krusty.

    I think Bruce Brailey is the one that Grassley needs to worry about. The Senator is VERY lucky he was not on the ballot with a good opponent these past 2 cycles.

    2 years is a long time in politics and it will be hard for Vilsack to keep his name ID up. Brailey will be the d'RATS best hope.

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  2. Grassley is going to be graded by his votes and resistance to the Obama administration these next two years. He can stand firm for our party or he can pull a Leach and we'll lose him for sure. I he stands firm, I'll work my fingers to the bone for him, if he plays it safe, then he's gone and our state loses it's final shades of red.

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  3. From the Gazette today:

    The honorable Senator Grassley:

    "The reality is it (bipartisanship) cannot be the case in every instance," Grassley said. "Sometimes if we as the minority cannot work things out, it is then our responsibility to be the loyal opposition, with emphasis on loyal. That means we have to have (policy) alternatives."

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  4. That is why the race for state Chair is so important next month.

    http://mattstrawn.blogspot.com/

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  5. 10:13 (Matt's water boy...)
    What a huge "whiff" that was!
    Don't get me wrong, Matt is a good candidate but the korrect answer is: Republicans need to start acting like Republicans...again!
    Can't make it any simpler and that applies to the mighty Senator Grassley as well!

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  6. Whiff? I checked it out and thought it looked pretty good.

    I wish all the candidates would let us know who they are and what they are about. Nothing wrong with that.

    Thats just the way I see it anyway.

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  7. 10:46 - That's not where my "whiff" was directed. I too watched the video, read the blog and the 100 day plan. Good stuff.
    Can someone produce a stronger product? That remains to be seen.
    I'll be offended if the other kandidates produce "me too" plans that copy cat Matt's vision.

    The RPI director is not the final solution to our problems, that was the direction of the reply.

    By the way, I see that the Senate grew a pair with the auto bailout and I also hear Kraig Paulsen just landed a good punch on the Dems today with a great press release about spending. Man, this is really encouraging!! Can we please have some more?

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  8. Tibby, the problem is more complex than simply Republican must act like Republicans again. Danny Carroll acted like a Republican and got waxed, so did Van Fossen, and Dan Rassmussen. Meanwhile Kent Sorenson won in a worse district acting like a Republican. Focus on the messenger. Kent worked his tail off and it worked. The whole party machine is broken. No money, no leadership, SOME mediocre candidates. We need a total plan overhaul. So far Strawn is the only one who put forth ideas on how to go forward. I am anxious to see what everyone else has to offer, this will be difficult to beat. I will be very disappointed in my SCC if they go with a mediocre plan because they are friends with someone.

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  9. Ooooh a big, scary press release. That'll show 'em!

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  10. The Democrats are going to be loading for bear for 2010..and all we're talking about is who's got the better press release or website?

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  11. Gengis...I can argue your reply with 3 words.
    1&2 White House
    3 Congress

    Matt has a good plan, but I'll be honest, it is missing a couple of key elements. That's why I want to shut up and wait to see what other candidates have to offer. Who can put their finger on "it."

    I told my SCC member when I Emailed for the 100 point plan that our state is like a dike right now, with 75+ holes and they're all leaking votes.

    Get the hint?

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  12. Can you keep a secret?

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  13. Mr. Tibby,

    Looks like you'll have your shot to ask him yourself.

    Looks like Strawn is going on a tour.

    “Pizza & Politics"

    Tuesday, Dec. 16
    Mason City (6:30 pm)
    The Other Place
    125 First Street, SE

    Wednesday, Dec. 17
    Davenport (11:45 am)
    Happy Joes
    201 W. 50th Street

    Burlington (6:30 pm)
    Pizza Hut
    1400 N. Roosevelt Ave.

    Friday, Dec. 19
    West Des Moines (11:45 am)
    Tavern II Pizza
    1755 50th Street

    Saturday, Dec. 20
    Orange City (8:30 am breakfast)
    De Koffiehoek and Bistro
    819 Lincoln Place SE

    Sioux City (11:45 am)
    Town House Pizza and Lounge
    2701 Floyd Blvd.

    Monday, Dec. 22
    Cedar Rapids (11:45 am)
    Zio Johno’s
    2925 Williams Pkwy SW

    Cedar Falls (6:30 pm)
    The Other Place
    4214 University Ave

    Monday, January 5
    Dubuque (6:30 pm)
    The Shot Tower
    290 Locust Street

    Tuesday, January 6
    Council Bluffs (6:30 pm)
    Pizza King
    1101 North Broadway

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  14. Sweat equity...I love it
    He's now been upgraded from
    "hold" to "buy".
    But like all things on the
    street, (politiks included)
    that can change.
    Very respectable effort!
    Who can knock that?

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  15. Starting to be impressedDecember 12, 2008 at 2:54 PM

    Wow very nice!

    Matt Strawn gets it! At least thats what it looks like so far. Its about the WHOLE Republican party, not just the 17 SCC members. Even if they are the only ones who get a vote.

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  16. Research 2000 polls are about as balanced as the Register and MSNBC. They have never been right and Grassley will crush Vilsack or Brailey. I will bet $100 Brailey does NOT run for the Senate.

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  17. If Strawn eats pizza at every stop on that tour he is going to look strikingly similar to Chester.

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  18. Strawn is just now doing what other candidates have already been doing, they just aren't campaigning about it on a blog.

    Hell Krusty and Don McDowell have blogs and I don't want either of them as chairman. No offense guys.

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  19. Really?! I havent seen anything from anyone else? Only secret meetings and blog comments from supporters.

    I find it refreshing and encouraging.

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  20. We can only hope Braley takes on Grassley it would be great to get rid of him so soon.

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  21. Strawn's map on his blog is blue - so...to Matt Strawn...the state is blue...

    In addition, his whole blog is blue.

    And I thought we were trying to make this a red state?

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  22. Strawn's campaign is impressive and this is what we need statewide for all Republican candidates.

    By the time the next two years are over both the state of Iowa and the country are going to be so bankrupt from these Democrats controlling the whole ball of wax, Democrats will be running for the hills.

    Republicans need to go loaded for bear.

    If Strawn is the new chairman he needs to be extremely conscious of voter fraud.

    Now Soros is going to go after Secretary of State seats.

    The American people must figure it out that most of the corruption that we've had here in Iowa with CIETC and now the Chicago are all Democrats.

    It is Democrats (most of them now involved in the Obama administration or still in congress) who are responsible for the housing crisis.

    They enriched themselved while pressuring lending institutions to make loans to people who did not have the means with which to pay back the loans.

    Now they're wanting to bailout unprofitable automobile manufacturers who just happen to have thousands of United Auto Workers union members who finance the Democrat party.

    If these auto companies are not profitable now, why does anyone believe they'll be profitable with more money thrown at them.

    Where does this end? These bailouts are going to make everyone poor.

    At least we have two Republicans, King and Latham who have brains and the ability to see long term.

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  23. Matt also wrote a screenplay, Blue Lagoon. I think Marko Ramius should be our new RPI chair, kause we're certainly in the "Hunt for Red November!"
    ;)

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  24. 3:36- I agree Pundit does not = intelligent.

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  25. There are things back there which don't respond well to bullets.

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  26. Wait, so let me get this straite 4:10? Matt Strawn isnt Republican enough because his website is blue? That is probably the most stupid thing Ive ever heard.

    Grassley's yard signs are blue, does that mean he's unfit too?

    Until 2000, there was no such thing as a color difference between the parties. The media used to alternate Red and Blue between the parties every other election cycle.

    We've got a lot of work to do to get our party ship-shape for 2010. Lets try to keep our eye on the ball.

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  27. Grassley's opponent doesn't matter, Steve Rathje is planning on taking him out in the Primary.

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  28. Yeah, get it straite you guys.

    Not straight.

    Oy!

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  29. I've been a loyal Republican for over 20 years. I will NEVER vote for Chuck Grassley again. I may not vote for his opponent but the fake conservative will never get my vote.

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  30. Tibby is Tim Palmer.

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  31. We need to worry about the opportunity to still win elections in Iowa.

    The Democrats want to expand the power of labor unions here. We see the corruption it brought to IL and MI.

    Also be aware that ultra lib, George Soros and friends have formed a group called Secretary of State Project expressly to elect Democrats to the offices of Sec of State in the states.

    This is so they have Democrats in place to control as many elections as possible.

    We had better wake up while we still have a few breaths left.

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  32. Rathje will try to take on Ear Lobe in the 2nd.

    Grassley is safe, just another media attempt to make a race out of nothing. Can anyone say Rag/Greenwald?

    CHAIR TALK:

    Strawn's getting HOT doing the right things. The ultimate question is who he would hire to do the nuts and bolts for him?

    Dark Horse: "The Cable Guy" Andy's been in the trenches for decades. Give him a hard look.

    Someone tell Reed to run for the state legislature before trying to play in the majors.

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  33. Maybe if Steve Scheffler would donate some of the money he received indirectly from Romney to our candidates we could win some.

    When was the last time any on the candidate for Chair donated any money to a local race? hmmmm

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  34. Rathje vs. Miller-Meeks in the 2nd District Primary? That would be fun to watch.

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  35. Would still love to hear if Strawn was fired, laid-off, etc from the McCain campaign..

    He's only been in Iowa for what a year and a half now..and people think this guy is the savior??

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  36. As of Thursday the hard count of solid votes was/is as follows:

    Gopal 4 -
    Pate 3 +
    Carroll 2 +/-
    Randall 1
    Iverson 1
    Strawn ? +

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  37. Interesting Website:

    unionfacts.org

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  38. Pate 3+? Talk about wishfull thinking.

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  39. Here is a more acurate count:

    Krishna: 4
    Strawn: 3
    Carroll: 2
    Randall: 1
    Iverson: 1
    Pate: 0 - with 1 maybe
    Cable: 0
    Undecided: 5

    *Undecideds seem to be on the fence between Strawn and Carroll.

    + The votes for Iverson and Randall probably go to Strawn before the vote is actually taken.

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  40. Who are the Gopal Krishna votes? Both prognosticators are at 4.

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  41. Wonder what polling firm are we using here?

    Victory Enterprises..cuz we all know how accurate they are..ROTFL

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  42. Nobody wants Carroll. He is so last month. The excuses for his losing streak have fallen on deaf ears. Time to move on.

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  43. Well, as long as they weren’t done by Eagle Media they should be at least somewhat close. “Miller-Meeks is within 3 points of Dave Loebsack and we’re gonna win!” Yeah, right … You guys only missed that one by what? 16%?

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