Presumptive 2012 Iowa Congressional Districts

With the 2010 campaigns currently stuck in neutral, I decided to make a different type of prediction this year. While I certainly have my eye on a few gubernatorial possibilities like Mark Pearson and Matt Whitaker, neither have made any moves that would indicate that a statewide campaign is looming. Currently the only candidate out there is perennial candidate Bob Vander Plaats. The candidate who I was most likely to name this year if I went that direction was Chuck Grassley. Sure he’s already an icon in this state, but I get the sense that we will see a more engaged candidate Grassley this cycle which is very much needed.

Instead of predicting a breakout candidate, I’ve decided to make an early guess in how Iowa’s congressional districts will look after the 2011 redistricting where Iowa will lose one of its seats in Congress. I wanted to take this approach for a couple of reasons. One, I find it fun. Two, as a party we need to always have an eye to the future, and three, redistricting should effect the rebuilding effort that RPI will go through this cycle.

Now, for you hardcore government employee geeks, I did this while watching football on a piece of paper while enjoying my favorite beverage. I also realize that the new 4th CD has a larger population than that of the other 3 districts, but remember, I’m trying to predict what the map will look like, so I intentionally made the new 4th more populous now, because counties like Polk, Dallas, Linn, and Scott will continue to grow while the rest of the state is stagnate.

Here are some of the things I found interesting:

I intended to keep Linn and Johnson County in the same district but doing so proved to be difficult. Keeping the two counties together became difficult. Then I remembered that the first redistricting plan in 2001 spit the two, and the new 2nd CD is very similar to the 2nd CD in the first attempt for the 2001 redistricting.

There has been a lot of discussion about the possibility of the new 3rd district would stretch south to pick up Wapello county, giving former 2nd congressional candidate Mariannette Miller-Meeks a new district to run in. That scenario is almost impossible. The 2nd CD did see significant change however, but if you are looking for a Republican candidate my search would probably start in Scott County.

I think this redistricting plan proves most difficult for Loebsack. Running in a much larger more diverse district could get him in a lot of trouble. On the other hand, King, Latham, and Braley all would do well in their districts.

I will be writing more about this in the coming weeks. I’m interested to hear your thoughts.

First District (Salmon)
19 Counties
Population: 743,729
24.9% of state pop

Second District (Yellow)
22 Counties
Population: 742,687
24.9% of state pop

Third District (Blue)
12 Counties
Population: 741,372
24.8% of state pop

Fourth District (Purple)
46 Counties
Population: 756,017
25.3% of state pop

(Click on map to enlarge it)