A Change Election?

As we enter the final days of this election cycle, the news media and the Obama campaign keep reminding us that this is a change election. However in Iowa if the news media is to be believed there will be little or no change except for who our president is, and we all knew that was going to happen regardless of the political environment.

There are really two games in town for Iowa Republicans. The most obvious is the race for control of the Iowa House of Representatives. Now on Tuesday I’ll be posting my state house predictions so I don’t want to give anything away just yet, but there are a number of candidates to be excited about and there is a scenario where Republicans take back the majority.

When you look at the State House effort there are a number of entities advocating against Democrat candidates which helps. My only concern is that if voters tune in late all they have seen is negative ads. Now I know that you must contrast yourself against your opponent, but there is a fine line that campaigns should not cross. Ask Rep. Gayman, a Democrat who took an attack too far which will send her packing after just one term.

In a somewhat surprising development the other opportunity for Republicans is in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District where Dr. Miller-Meeks has given Congressman Loebsack all he can handle. Now most Dem activists and the liberal news media will quickly point out the districts voter registration numbers. However, I ask you to find me another congressional district that has gone through more in this election cycle.

In less than 5 months, the 2nd District has been hit by the largest natural disaster in its history, which was then followed up by the national financial crisis. Things couldn’t get much worse. Those two events caused many of the normal issues that we see in campaigns to take a backseat while the desire for visionary leadership has become the major issue which has fueled Miller-Meeks’ campaign.

Miller-Meeks has backed Loebsack into the corner. Loebsack like a fighter on the ropes has put his gloves up to fend off a major blow. His campaign has obviously increased its media buys in the last full week, but I don’t think an ad about gas prices or a good ad on his work for veterans answers all of the charges that Miller-Meeks has put at his feet. Seriously people, in the bluest of districts Loebsack isn’t running ads against the “failed policies of George Bush” or social security; which is interesting when you consider the Democrats are using those issues in their state legislature races.

There is an upset brewing in the 2nd District, Miller-Meeks has the momentum and it’s not just her supporters who feel it. People are talking about it over there. Like many campaigns that surge, timing is everything.