Friday, October 31, 2008

A Change Election?

As we enter the final days of this election cycle, the news media and the Obama campaign keep reminding us that this is a change election. However in Iowa if the news media is to be believed there will be little or no change except for who our president is, and we all knew that was going to happen regardless of the political environment.

There are really two games in town for Iowa Republicans. The most obvious is the race for control of the Iowa House of Representatives. Now on Tuesday I’ll be posting my state house predictions so I don’t want to give anything away just yet, but there are a number of candidates to be excited about and there is a scenario where Republicans take back the majority.

When you look at the State House effort there are a number of entities advocating against Democrat candidates which helps. My only concern is that if voters tune in late all they have seen is negative ads. Now I know that you must contrast yourself against your opponent, but there is a fine line that campaigns should not cross. Ask Rep. Gayman, a Democrat who took an attack too far which will send her packing after just one term.

In a somewhat surprising development the other opportunity for Republicans is in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District where Dr. Miller-Meeks has given Congressman Loebsack all he can handle. Now most Dem activists and the liberal news media will quickly point out the districts voter registration numbers. However, I ask you to find me another congressional district that has gone through more in this election cycle.

In less than 5 months, the 2nd District has been hit by the largest natural disaster in its history, which was then followed up by the national financial crisis. Things couldn’t get much worse. Those two events caused many of the normal issues that we see in campaigns to take a backseat while the desire for visionary leadership has become the major issue which has fueled Miller-Meeks’ campaign.

Miller-Meeks has backed Loebsack into the corner. Loebsack like a fighter on the ropes has put his gloves up to fend off a major blow. His campaign has obviously increased its media buys in the last full week, but I don’t think an ad about gas prices or a good ad on his work for veterans answers all of the charges that Miller-Meeks has put at his feet. Seriously people, in the bluest of districts Loebsack isn’t running ads against the “failed policies of George Bush” or social security; which is interesting when you consider the Democrats are using those issues in their state legislature races.

There is an upset brewing in the 2nd District, Miller-Meeks has the momentum and it’s not just her supporters who feel it. People are talking about it over there. Like many campaigns that surge, timing is everything.

14 comments:

  1. Republicans take control of the Iowa House? Amy Winehouse thinks Krusty is hitting the crack pipe too hard!

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  2. No... Amy Winehouse would punch Krusty in the face, steal his pipe and start hysterically crying... "BLAKE!!! BLAKE!!!! BLAKE!!! Oh GIMME MORE COKE!!!!"

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  3. uhh - 3:18 must agree with 1:17 that Krusty is on the pipe then. So sad Krusty.

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  4. Hey Krusty...
    Don't forget that the media "OBasm" includes a krew of paid staffers with specific assignments to patrol the Republican blogs and kontaminate the "sphere" with comments like those above and disenfranchise all our fellow krustasians up to election day. After then, they'll do it anyway for free....you have to be on a pipe yourself to vote D this cycle. I don't see the blue tsunami that everyone is predicting, but then again, that's why I swing through your neighborhood for some sanity, since I won't get any from our mainstream "crackhead" media outlets!

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  5. can you people read. I said "there is a scenario where Republicans take back the majority."

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  6. So are there any polls that show MMM competitive with L-sack, or is Krusty just teasing us?

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  7. GO TEAM MILLER-MEEKS!October 31, 2008 at 9:51 PM

    Anon 8:43

    Does it matter? You always campaign as if you're 10 points down..

    To take PACMAN down...its time for GOPers in the 2nd to kick some ass this weekend and make it happen.

    No one thought MMM would make it to this point... She's always been told that she just "wasn't" going to be able to accomplish her goals..

    Yet, here she is...and with a big push this weekend..she once again can prove them wrong...Let's make it happen!

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  8. Just heard from Vilsak's guy that they are showing Miller-Meeks within 3 (the margin of error). They said this has the potential to be a D loss. The concern was that Shitsack's hard re-elect number has never gone above 46% -- he is in trouble.

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  9. She's in Cedar Rapids, she's in Muscatine, she's in Johnson -- she's EVERYWHERE!!!

    Go Team Miller-MEEKS...

    we're gonna WIN THIS RACE - get out and VOTE!!!

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  10. This is going to make Laura Belin - aka DesMoinesDem crap her pants. She was so worried about the two other races that were never close -- to see that her beloved Loebsack is on the ropes!

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  11. Can't wait to see the look on Lehman's face when Miller-Meeks wins!

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  12. I'm sure, true to form, KL is burning the lines to the 2nd district telling them NO! No Miller-Meeks.

    great profile for National Committee Woman (for the DEMS!)

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  13. I agree "there's a scenario," but it's very, very unlikely the GOP will take back control of the Iowa House. Honestly the GOP did little to endear themselves to conservative principles when they had control of the House. Most analysts believe a Democratic tsunami will make it nearly impossible for all but the strongest GOP districts to emerge victorious. A logical, and hopeful, scenario would be that in a few mixed districts, a strong GOP candidate may be able to pull out a victory over a weak Dem candidate. For example, Scott Tornquist may get 'er done in in Mason City. Or Jeremy Taylor in Sioux City. Or Scott Belt in Council Bluffs. But a GOP majority? I don't think so, in view of the strategic landscape, and projected Democratic turnout. And as bad as that sounds, it may be just what we deserve, given the squandered opportunities of the past. Should the Democrats prevail, let us hope that it will set the stage for a conservative rebirth at the next election.

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  14. Thundar; YOu are just hoping Republicans don't take back the House. You're going to feel oh, so superior!!!!

    You have all the answers.

    When are you going to run? We need you.

    If you can't see the damage that has been done in two short years by these big spending Democrats, you're in sorry, sorry shape.

    A House full of RINOS who be better than these Democrats who are bankrupting the state. And you don't see it.

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